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Macroeconomic
Outlook April 2016
Walking on
a Tightrope
GDP Growth 2016F1
1.8%
1.6%
0.7%
6.5%
4.3%
 
US
EUR
JPN
CHI
EM
Support from
Strong Labour Market
EMERGING
MARKETS
Weak Outlook but not Deteriorating Further
Inflation is low
but picking up...
Commodity prices and
US dollar stabilization ...
... but the Fed is more
focused on external
conditions.
... help stabilizing currencies
and economic conditions.
Fed backtracking too much, losing credibility
RISKS
EM meltdown
RISKS
 
Economic Conditions
Keep Deteriorating
Strong currencies ...
...put pressure on export
and earnings.
Monetary policy
losing effectiveness RISKS
Resilient but not
Spectacular Outlook
 
 
Economic Conditions
Weak but Stabilizing
Efforts in structural reforms are continuing...
Reforms and structural
transition in right direction...
... but political instability and national issues remain.
... but uncertainty
remains high.
Brexit outcome and
other political risksRISKS
Bad management of
China transition RISKS
 
Global Themes
Debt Deleveraging
Deleveraging pressure
still a long way to go
LowFlation
Global Credit: -2% in 2015 2
66$
Trillion

TOTAL DEBT CUMULATED IN 2005-15
Lowflation turning from cyclical to structural

 

Average World Inflation3
4.1%       2.9%

VS

In 2004-14     IN 2015-17
 
More Sustainable Growth
Growth structurally lower but in principle more balanced
Average World GDP Growth 4
4.0% 3.3%
2004-14 2015-17
 
Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Price Dynamics
Global
Catalysts
(Geo)political Risks
(Brexit, Election cycles, ME, ISIS)
Central Banks, China
Global
Risks
 
Source: Global Asset Allocation Research and Financial Communication, Pioneer Investments.
1 Source: Pioneer Investments Forecasts. Data as 7 April 2016
2 Sources: Pioneer Investments, BIS. Data as of March 2016. Data are for credit ex financial sector. Coverage: 11 DMs: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Eurozone, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and US. 19 EMs: Argentina, Brazil, China, Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. Last data available as of Q3 2015. The total debt cumulated in 2005-2015 refers to the period Sep 2005 - Sep 2015. Global Credit change refers to Q3 2015 vs Q3 2014.
3 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook. April 2016 Edition.
4 Source: IMF. World Economic Outlook April 2016 Edition.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Pioneer Investments and is as of April 11, 2016. The Views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Pioneer Investments, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and there can be no assurances that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading on behalf of any Pioneer Investments product. There is no guarantee that market forecasts discussed will be realized or that these trends will continue. Investments involve certain risks, Including political and currency risks. Investment return and principal value may go down as well as up and could result in the loss of all capital invested. This material does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation to sell any units of any investment fund or any services. All investment involve risks. You should consider your financial needs, goals, and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions Pioneer Investments is a trading name of the Pioneer Global Asset Management S.p.A group of companies. All icons from thenounproject.com.
Date of First Use: April 16, 2016.