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Macroeconomic
Outlook 2016
Walking on
a Tightrope
GDP Growth 2016F1
2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
6.5%
4.8%
 
US
EUR
JPN
CHI
EM
Support from
Strong Labour Market
EMERGING
MARKETS
A varied Picture
Inflation should pick up,
leading to....
Watch Fed China and
Commodities, to ...
... Fed normalization
... determined winners and
losers
Strong Dollar
RISKS
EM Meltdown
RISKS
 
Economic Conditions
Not Great
Need for further reforms to ...
...lift the potential rate of
growth
Slow reforms
RISKS
Domestic Conditions
Improving
 
 
Slowdown,
Not Hard Landing
Structural reforms leading
to ...
Rebalancing from
investments to
consumption, leading to...
...a more balanced and
sustainable growth
..a controlled Slowdown
Political and reform
implementationRISKS
Bad Execution in
Reforms RISKS
 
Global Themes
Debt Deleveraging
Deleveraging pressure
still a long way to go
LowFlation
Global Credit: -5% in 2015 2
72$
Trillion

TOTAL DEBT CUMULATED IN 2004-14
Lowflation turning from cyclical to structural

 

Average World Inflation3
4.2%       3.4%

VS

In 2004-14     IN 2015-17
 
More sustainable Growth
Growth structurally lower but in principle more balanced and sustainable in the long-term
AverageWorld GDP Growth 4
4.2% 3.4%
4.2% 3.4%
 
Responsive Central Bank
Structural Reforms
Global
Catalysts
Policy Mistakes
Geopolitcal Risk (ME, ISIS)

Global
Risks
 
Source: Global Asset Allocation Research and Financial Communication, Pioneer Investments.
1 Source: Pioneer Investments Forecasts
2 Sources: Pioneer Investments, BIS. Data as of October 2015. Data are for credit ex financial sector. Coverage: 5 DMs: US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, Canada; 15 EMs: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Czech, Hungary, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina; South Africa.
3 Source IMF World Economic Outlook. October 2015 Edition.
4 Source: IMF. Pioneer Investments Forecasts for 2015 – 2017.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Pioneer Investments and is as of December 10, 2015. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Pioneer Investments, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and there can be no assurances that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading on behalf of any Pioneer Investments product. There is no guarantee that market forecasts discussed will be realized or that these trends will continue. Investments involve certain risks, including political and currency risks. Investment return and principal value may go down as well as up and could result in the loss of all capital invested.
This material does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation to sell any units of any investment fund or any services.
All investments involve risks. You should consider your financial needs, goals, and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions Pioneer Investments is a trading name of the Pioneer Global Asset Management S.p.A. group of companies.
Date of First Use: December 17, 2015.