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French Presidential Election – Preliminary Thoughts

Perspectives» |

April 10, 2017

The presidential election in France is surely the most prominent event for Spring and a potential victory for Marine Le Pen and the Front National would be perceived as a key geopolitical risk for the Eurozone as a whole. At the time of writing, we attribute a low probability for a Le Pen win and expect that a firmer growth path for the Eurozone should help in facing multiple geopolitical challenges, unless other tail risks materialize.

In this paper, we consider all of the possible outcomes for the French election and try to assess the market implications from a Multi-Asset and Equity investment perspective.

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